Redistricting Submissions

Thank you all for participating in the City of Dallas Redistricting effort.

Thank You so much!

After multiple failures over the past hour, I shut down again, did a cold boot waiting a full minute before rebooting, and typed in all my data. Something made a difference. It worked. Now I will let the computer fill in the data below.

Dear City of Dallas Redistricting team,

It appears that the problem may have been in my computer and the second cold boot waiting a minute before restarting my computer may have eliminated whatever problem there was. Does that make sense? Anyhow it appears to be accepting public comment now so this is great! Thank you for whatever you may have done to get it corrected.

Do you also think the problem may have been in my need to do a one-minute-wait cold boot with my computer? Or did your work find another problem?

Bill

Here is my final version of Submission #3 ID 101516. The graphics attached is the new map with the current district boundaries inserted so as to demonstrate how much more compact these new districts are.

I had tried to post two images with one message and apparently that is not possible. Here is the more important image of the Chart to help measure the simplicity of a map, i.e. a map made with the fewest separate streets, Freeways, rivers, railroad tracks etc… used to make the boundaries.

After hundreds of hours constantly improving 60 maps, here is Map 61, saved in the Gallery, which is the best map of any made to date in providing the 9 strongest minority districts possible. It provides 4 strong winnable districts for both the Dallas Black Community and the Dallas Hispanic Community. A ninth district is a Minority Opportunity District wherein the minority community can unite to elect a City Council Representative of their choice. There are 5 majority White districts.

It can never be said stronger maps are not possible. I challenge everyone to work to provide a strong minority representation map. The City Council must reflect Dallas. This will be a major change for Dallas as the 31 years of gerrymandered minority districts so as to weaken the minority vote and power in City Hall must come to an end!

It is presumed many current council members will no longer be living in the districts they represent as gerrymandering unnecessary to improve minority representation has been eliminated in the construction of these 61 maps.

Dallas needs to know that on 3/28/22 a major error in the Districtr software was suspected and reported to Dallas City Staff. They immediately reported the inconsistent data to the consultants who sent the statements of concern to Districtr. By Friday Districtr had verified the problem and corrected it.

What was happening is that while Hispanic VAP numbers were correct, both the WVAP and BVAP numbers were double-counting those Hispanics who also identified as White or as Black on the 2020 Census.

This double-counting was leading to a massive overcount in WVAP numbers as many Hispanics also identify as White, and a lower overcount in BVAP due to the number of Hispanics who also identify as Black.

The good news is that the error has been corrected. The bad news is that all reports generated from Districtr before 4/1/22 are in error. Here is an illustration of the changes. I welcome questions.

The Dallas White-non-Hispanic census count as a percentage of Dallas population has declined constantly for decades. In 1990, when single-member Dallas City Council Districts were about to be mandated by the courts, it fell below 50% for the first time in the 10-year Census. Hopefully, with the 2022 Redistricting, the gerrymandering that has allowed a winnable White-non-Hispanic majority of districts to remain on the City Council map these past 30 years will be eliminated to have 9 strong and winnable minority districts. Please share if you agree.

It is surprising that this data is not easy to find online and in one location. Here are the sources that verify this data originally from the normal 10-year U.S. Census:
The data for 1930 is found at https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/dallas-tx-population. It is stated on that page that “The community of Dallas has historically been mostly white, with non-Hispanic whites accounting for 83% of the population in 1930”
The data for 1990 is found on the 703 page 1990 Census report at https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1990/cp-1/cp-1-45-1.pdf
On page 93 of that document, you will find that 479,980 of the 1,006,877 Dallas 1990 population were White-non-Hispanic. That comes out to 47.67% of the Dallas population.
The data for 2000 and 2010 is verified on page 20 of the census document at https://dallascityhall.com/departments/strategicpartnerships/redistrictingcommission/DCH%20Documents/RED_briefing_040611.pdf.
The data for 2020 is verified at https://www.dallasecodev.org/490/Demographics.

If the image of the chart comparing the winnability of the final dozen maps regarding the minority winnability of the various maps does not post with this message, it can be seen with the most recent posting at http://billbetzen.blogspot.com/

Below is a chart of the Dallas City Council Redistricting maps being studied for selection by the Commission and then to use as a platform for any amendments needed. They are the maps that best achieve the Civil Rights goals of maximizing minority participation in our Dallas City Government. These maps produced the most districts that have the highest potential for selecting a minority candidate. It is clearly shown that 9 winnable minority districts are possible. It also shows that 5 winnable Black Districts are possible but not without destroying the potential for a 4th Hispanic District and a 9th winnable minority opportunity district.

In an attempt to measure winnability three different measurements were used: ppb, pph, and ppw. They tell the strength of a minority group in winning a district by telling you how many percentage points exist between the highest VAP (Voting Age Population) percentage racial/ethnic group in a district and the next highest percentage racial/ethnic group. It then identifies that second-place group as either Black, Hispanic or White-Non-Hispanic. This measurement system is used throughout the chart to achieve some objectivity. Since we know CVAP percentages are generally only about 61% of Hispanic VAP percentages but average over 30% higher than Black and White-non-Hispanic VAP percentages, we can make winnability estimations accordingly.

Obviously, this is only a crude measure, but it lends some level of objectivity to a very human process.

To double-check the calculations I have made in this chart it is recommended you randomly select any number in the chart and check it with the identified map
VAP data for the district you want to check. Please let me know immediately if you find any errors. I hope there are none, but it is very possible as this involved multiple calculations.

The numbers 1, 2, 3 & 4 at the top of the four columns for Black Districts and for Hispanic Districts are simply to identify the columns and not to be confused with district numbers. The goal is 4 winnable districts each plus the Minority Opportunity District in the last column as the ninth winnable district.

I value any questions you may have. The chart is below. My email is bbetzen@aol.com.

I prefer Map ID COD-041. The map gives more compactness, which insures the districts can speak as one voice. The southern districts have been gerrymandered to the benefit of the northern districts for far too long. Geographically spreading of districts dilute the ability of a district from speaking with a common voice. I like what Map 41 does for our city.